TRADE AND MARKETING Europatat focuses on promotion and a worldwide role in the food supply of the Europatat Congress, the German Potato Trade Organisation (DKHV), had invited Professor Harald von Witzke of the Humboldt University of Berlin. He expects the world population to increase from 7 billion in 2015 to 10 billion in 2050. As a result of the increasing population and the increasing consumption per head of the population, the worldwide demand for food in the period 2000 to 2050 will rise by 120 percent. The worldwide supply of food, however, will slow down because the best arable land is already being used, according to the professor. There is currently no extra arable land available anymore in the EU. Ninety percent of the expanding food requirements will have to come from an increase in agricultural productivity. The problem, however, is that the increase in agricultural productivity in the EU has levelled off to 0.6 percent a year, while average productivity in Europe over all the agricultural sectors increased by 4 percent during the period 1960-1989. Break with past trends Another limiting factor for worldwide food production is the diminishing availability of water resources. ‘Only 2.5 percent of the worldwide water supply is fresh water’, tells Von Witzke. Food production will also be faced with expected rising energy prices, global warming and increasing competition in acreage for the production of ‘non-food crops’ such as bioenergy. Besides, the EU is imposing conditions on greening, which doesn’t really encourage production. The professor argues that if, as a result of the slowing down factors on food production, demand increases, the prices of agricultural products will start rising. This will lead to a break with past trends, in which surpluses regularly led to pressure on the prices of agricultural products. The break in trend will have a positive effect on employment opportunities and the income of farmers and traders. The bad news is that food security will become a political issue. This will lead to political instability, violence and migration throughout the world. A billion people in the world are starving. EU and China are biggest importers Von Witzke points out that the developing countries used to be net food exporters in the past. Today, many developing countries are importing food. Their food shortage will have increased fivefold by 2030 compared to the year 2000. The professor concludes that the developing countries will only be able to fulfil their food requirements if the developed countries, among which the EU, produce and export more food. More production means that the developed countries can export more and import less. The biggest net importers of agricultural produce in the world are the EU and China. In 2008, both imported to a value of approx. 45 billion American dollars each. Fewer imports by developed countries will relieve the worldwide food shortages and slow down deforestation in developing countries. Von Witzke’s view is that deforestation will contribute more to global warming than the increasing industrial production and transport movements such as motor traffic. The professor concludes that a worldwide increase in agricultural productivity, so including the EU, will be an important factor in the fight against famine and global warming. Increased agricultural productivity will also lead to the protection of natural habitats, including the tropical rain forests. In figures, an increase in the annual European agricultural productivity by 1 percent will lead to food for ten million people, a reduction of EU import of around 1.2 million hectares and, consequently, the preservation of the same surface of natural habitats. So, more than sufficient opportunity for the potato sector. ● Jan Gottschall, NAO Secretary for Seed Potatoes The worldwide supply of food will slow down because the best arable land is already being used, according to Professor Harald von Witzke of the Humboldt University. ‘Opel cars have greatly improved, but the consumer doesn’t yet know it. The Opel brand name acts as a block between the product and the consumer’, Niels Alzen of Scholz & Friends explains to the European potato sector. Potato World 2015 • number 3 27 Pagina 26

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