TRADE AND MARKETING World wakes up to the potential of the potato We all know that potatoes are nutritious, versatile and have a much smaller environmental footprint than other crops, but it is only now that the rest of the world is waking up to that fact. But how many potatoes will the world need in the coming years? At World Potato Markets we recently made some unique calculations and they provide some good news for the industry. By Cedric Porter f potato consumption remains the same per head as it did then there would be a need for a third more potatoes in 2050 than in 2015 at around 480 million tonnes. This is calculated using UN population predictions and historical figures from the UN FAO’s statistical service FAOSTAT. But if consumption continues to increase at the same rate as it did between 1975 and 2010, then there is a need for a 48.5% increase in potato production. However, at historic rates of yield increase that would only take an extra 11.1% of land. I Maintaining supply at 2010 rates in Asia would require a 19.9% increase in production to 203 million tonnes by 2050, but if consumption continued to increase at the rate it did between 1975 and 2010 then production would have to increase by more than 190% to 704 million tonnes. That is extremely unlikely, so what we have also calculated is the increase in production needed to fulfil China and India’s intentions to increase the production and supply of potatoes. High yield is an essential benchmark if successful potato processing operations are to be developed. 36 Potato World 2016 • number 1 Pagina 35
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