TRADE AND MARKETING World wakes up to the potential of the potato Possible future potato supply and production 2015-2050 continued Africa Population Supply at 2010 rate Production at 2010 supply rate Supply at historic rate Production at historic rate Supply kg/hd/yr Area at 2010 rate Area at historic yield rate North America Population Supply at 2010 rate Production at 2010 supply rate Supply at historic rate Production at historic rate Supply kg/hd/yr Area at 2010 rate Area at historic yield rate South America Population Supply at 2010 rate Production at 2010 supply rate Supply at historic rate Production at historic rate Supply kg/hd/yr Area at 2010 rate Area at historic yield rate Oceania Population Supply at 2010 rate Production at 2010 supply rate Supply at historic rate Production at historic rate Supply kg/hd/yr Area at 2010 rate Area at historic yield rate 25.9 35.0 28.4 38.4 21.2 2.5 2.3 29.0 39.2 33.4 45.1 22.2 2.8 2.6 32.4 43.8 38.9 52.5 23.1 3.1 2.8 36.0 48.7 45.0 60.8 24.1 3.4 3.0 1186.2 1340.1 1504.2 1679.3 1865.9 2063.0 2267.9 2477.5 +108.9 22.9 30.9 24.0 32.5 20.3 2.2 2.1 39.8 53.8 51.7 69.9 25.1 3.8 3.3 357.8 20.1 25.4 20.1 25.4 56.1 0.607 0.558 418.4 11.8 15.7 11.9 15.7 28.4 0.998 0.679 39.3 2.041 2.474 2.085 2.527 53.0 0.065 0.049 371.3 20.8 26.3 20.9 26.4 56.2 0.630 0.536 438.1 12.4 16.4 12.5 16.5 28.5 1.045 0.647 42.1 2.187 2.650 2.279 2.763 54.1 0.070 0.048 384.3 21.6 27.3 21.6 27.3 56.2 0.652 0.516 455.7 12.9 17.1 13.0 17.2 28.6 1.087 0.617 44.8 2.325 2.818 2.481 3.008 55.4 0.074 0.048 Source: calculations based on UN FAOSTAT and UN population data. Indian demand could grow 133% India has also announced its intention to increase potato use, but it has taken a consumption per head approach with an aim of ensuring a 50kg/head/year supply, more than double what it is now. If that aim is met then there will be a requirement for 112 million tonnes of potatoes, an increase of 133.7%. That would require 25% more land if the rate of increase in yields seen between 1975 and 2010 is maintained. It might be a picture of healthy market growth in India, but in Europe it is one of steady decline as the population slow falls and consumption appears to have peaked. If 2010 levels of consumption are maintained then there will be a requirePotato yields in tonnes/hectare (2013) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 396.3 22.2 28.1 22.3 28.2 56.2 0.672 0.498 471.0 13.3 17.6 13.5 17.9 28.7 1.123 0.589 47.4 2.458 2.979 2.676 3.244 56.5 0.078 0.047 406.9 22.8 28.9 22.9 28.9 56.3 0.690 0.479 483.8 13.7 18.1 13.9 18.4 28.8 1.153 0.563 49.8 2.585 3.133 2.869 3.478 57.6 0.082 0.047 416.4 23.4 29.5 23.4 29.6 56.3 0.706 0.463 494.0 14.0 18.5 14.2 18.8 28.8 1.178 0.538 52.1 2.707 3.281 3.061 3.711 58.7 0.086 0.047 43.8 59.1 59.0 79.7 26.0 4.2 3.5 424.9 23.8 30.1 23.9 30.3 56.3 0.721 0.447 501.8 14.2 18.8 14.5 19.2 28.9 1.197 0.513 54.4 2.824 3.423 3.254 3.944 59.8 0.090 0.046 47.8 64.6 66.8 90.3 27.0 4.6 3.8 433.1 24.3 30.7 24.4 30.8 56.3 0.735 0.432 507.2 14.4 19.0 14.7 19.5 29.0 1.209 0.489 56.6 2.938 3.561 3.448 4.179 60.9 0.093 0.046 +108.9 +108.9 +178.1 +178.1 +33.2 +108.9 +80.4 +21.0 +21.0 +21.0 +21.5 +21.5 +0.4 +21.0 -22.6 +21.2 +21.2 +21.2 +23.9 +23.9 +2.2 +21.2 -28.0 +43.9 +43.9 +43.9 +65.4 +65.4 +14.9 +43.9 -5.7 Africa South America China Asia World Europe Oceania North America EU-­‐5 Belgium USA 38 Potato World 2016 • number 1 Pagina 37

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