CULTIVATION AND TECHNOLOGY EU production is forecast down in 2015, while stability reigns in North America Guy Faulkner and Cedric Porter of World Potato Markets take a look at forecasts for EU and North American potato production this year. EU production is forecast down in 2015, while stability reigns in N America. A lmost perfect growing conditions across much of Europe last year saw EU production rise to nearly 60 million tonnes and prices plunge to record lows in many countires. This year, however, plantings are likely to be cut across the board and it is very unlikely that yields will match those of 2014. On the basis of medium term trend levels of area and yield, World Potato Markets predicts the total EU harvest should be around 54.8 million tonnes. Potato plantings in the EU have fallen by nearly 50% since the year 2000 and production continues to concentrate in the five western European countries that regularly deliver yields of more than 40 tonnes a hectare. Those countries are Germany, Netherlands, France, United Kingdom and Belgium Last year at this time World Potato Markets correctly predicted an increase in the harvest but were confounded by the extent of the extra plantings and particularly by the huge increase in yield compared with 2013. Growers expected to cut production The miserable returns for growers in the 2014/15 season will result in a sharp cutback in plantings this year but, in line with the long term trend, the largest cutback will take place in the 23 peripheral EU countries. In the central EU-5 countries the outcome is likely to be a ware harvest (including seed potatoes in the cases of Germany and the UK) of around 26.88 million tonnes. This would be 8.4% smaller than last year’s bumper crop but would be comfortably above the average of the previous five years (of 26.157 million tonnes). While the Dutch area trend is virtually static, there has been steady growth in France and Belgium. This year’s area cutback will probably be smallest in Belgium (-1.0%), because of the success of the processing industry, and largest in the Netherlands (3.9%). The French and Belgian figures exclude early potatoes. The combined area grown in these countries, of 261 500 hectares, would be 2.7% smaller than last year. Plantings of ware and seed potatoes have been steadily declining in both Germany and the UK. There was a recovery in Germany last year but the decline is likely to be extended this year. Our harvest forecasts for this year are based on the medium term trend yields shown in the charts, of more than 50 tonnes/hectare in the NetherlandsMore than 49 tonnes/hectare in Belgium and just above 46 tonnes/hectare in France. Trend figures for this year suggest that there should be significant declines in Potato World 2015 • number 2 47 Pagina 46
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