TRADE AND MARKETING A new potato world order The potato is becoming more global with production and consumption increasing in developing markets as pressure increases in the more established European and North American markets, writes Cedric Porter of World Potato Markets. atest universal production figures estimate potato production up to 2013. In the 20 years before that world production increased by 23.5% as a large increase in Asian and African demand outweighed a drop in European output. Over the last 20 years Asia has overtaken Europe as the continent producing the most potatoes as its output has more than doubled to 187.214 million tonnes. There are two countries that dominate Asian production – China and India. Chinese production has jumped by 109% to 95.897 million tonnes in 2013. In 2015 production is expected to comfortably exceed 100 million tonnes. Indian production has grown by an even greater proportion (142%) to 45.343 million tonnes. At the start of the 20 year period China and India accounted for 73.8% of Asian production and by 2013 that proportion was little changed at 75.4% meaning that just 46 million tonnes of total Asian production is in the 46 countries of continent aside from China and India. L European output falls Total European output has dropped by a third in the last 20 years with this decline concentrated in the European Union and Poland in particular which has reduced its potato production for animal feed and alcohol/fuel significantly. There has also been a concentration of European Union production into the five main western European producers – Germany, France, Netherlands, UK and Belgium who are achieving average yields double those of some of their EU neighbours. Russia – Potato production in million tonnes – 1993 to 2013 1993 1998 World Asia China India Africa N America S America Europe European Union Russia Oceania Source: UN 304.865 301.123 87.59 one of the world’s largest per capita consumers of potatoes has seen output drop by a fifth. North America holds steady North American production has largely held steady at 24.465 million tonnes, an increase of 7.5% since 1993 with output in South America up nearly 40%over the 20 year period to 15.604 million tonnes and Oceanian production up a fifth. While the increase in Asian potato production has been impressive, in percentage terms it has been outweighed by Africa where output has jumped by 260% to 30.498 million tonnes. Population growth focused in Africa Anticipating future potato production is important for those planning the long-term direction of their businesses. Looking at future population figures, it is clear that the shift from developed potato to developing markets will continue and even speed up. By 2050 UN population predictions suggest that there will be 9.55 billion people in the world by 2050, an increase of 38%. In both number and percentage terms, Africa will see the largest population gains. The population of Africa is expected to increase by more than 130% to 2.393 billion people by 2050, while the Asian population is expected to grow by just 24% to 5.164 billion. South America’s population is expected to increase by 31% to 781 million with the number of North Americans rising by 29% to 446 million. In contrast, the 2003 314.754 45.941 64.618 68.139 18.749 8.47 22.761 11.163 171.62 98.292 17.652 23.161 11.173 25.91 15.486 26.067 2008 329.921 108.55 125.466 144.456 70.839 376.452 187.214 95.897 34.658 45.343 21.632 30.498 23.552 13.81 13.188 14.056 137.914 130.236 37.650 31.418 1.542 1.874 121.787 80.528 63.938 61.818 24.465 15.604 114.294 53.467 36.746 28.846 30.199 1.749 1.908 1.836 2013 % change 1993-13 23.5 113.7 108.7 141.8 260.1 7.5 39.8 -33.4 -45.6 -19.8 19.1 Potato World 2015 • number 3 29 Pagina 28
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