TRADE AND MARKETING A new potato world order World and regional population predictions to 2050 in Billion 2010 World Asia China India Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean Europe E Europe W Europe N America Oceania Source: UN European population is set to shrink by 4% to 709 million with a massive reduction of 17% in the east of the continent. Anticipating future production So what does this mean for potato production? World Potato Markets has made some informed but inexact calculations. These suggests that world production will increase by 53% to 577 million tonnes by 2050. Both China and India have announced their intention to increase potato production and consumption significantly through to 2050 and beyond. Using those intentions and 2050 population estimates, then both countries are likely to be producing a similar volume of 118 million tonnes and 115 million tonnes respectively. If they continue to account for around three quarters of Asian output between them, then Asian production is likely to be around 315 million tonnes by 2050. A larger African population and higher potato consumption should mean the continent has joined the 100 million tonnes a year club by then, with output similar to Europe which is likely to see reduced consumption due to its smaller population and changes in eating habits. North American output may have risen five million tonnes to 30 million tonnes, with a 10 million tonne jump in South America to 25 million tonnes. Oceanian output may increase by a million tonnes to nearly three million tonnes. An increase in potato yields or a switch from other crops will have to occur if the increase in potato production is to take place. Currently there is a massive gap between the average 6.916 2020 7.716 1.389 2030 4.165 4.581 4.886 1.360 1.402 1.415 1.205 1.528 1.031 1.312 0.831 0.596 0.74 0.296 0.191 0.346 0.037 1.077 0.661 2050 8.424 9.550 5.164 1.348 1.634 2.393 1.368 0.716 0.743 0.736 0.287 0.195 0.375 0.274 0.197 0.403 2.074 0.781 0.709 0.246 0.196 0.446 0.042 0.047 0.057 % change 2010-50 38.1 24 -0.9 1.705 +41.5 132.1 149.6 31 -4.2 -16.9 2.6 28.9 54.1 30 Potato World 2015 • number 3 Pagina 29
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